The United States is going through a very big health crisis and the whole economy has been severely hit. The outlook of the US economy does not look impressive and now economists are predicting that the US economy might plunge into an economic crisis. We have had a historic economic expansion for the last 10 years and this has come to an end because of the current global economic meltdown and panic. The hit on the American economy has been so big and now this is being reflected in the real GDP, employment, consumer consumption and in the industrial production. It is projected that the united states GDP will falter in the first quarter of the year and probably throughout the year. Firms like the Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and the Bank of America all expecting the US economy to have the worst year in many decades. If the health crisis continues, we will end up in an economic crisis that will be bigger than what we had in 2008. Right now many companies are suspending their operations and this is being reflected in the labor market where the jobless claims are skyrocketing every day.
Because big industries are shutting down all their operations, the manufacturing numbers are expected to hit record lows. At the same time millions of people are losing their jobs and this will translate to a decline in consumer spending which has a significant contribution to the US GDP. This means that the GDP will experience a very big decline. Actually, experts are saying that the US is already in an economic crisis. Economists from the UCLA Anderson School of Management have said that the US economy is no longer growing and we will remain in a recession until October. Major Banks are also making similar claims and the Bank of America economists who are lead by Michelle Meyer stated that the United States has already joined the rest of the world in an economic slowdown because of this interruption of supply chains. It is very clear that the current global panic has already pushed the US economy into a big disaster and right now we are going through a historic economic meltdown. Today we will dive into what the experts are saying about the economy
Goldman Sachs had earlier said that the current health crisis will push the US economy to a recession but on Friday they updated their estimations and now they are predicting that the worse will happen. They have dramatically cut the US forecasts and their expectations are that the US GDP will decline by approximately 24 percent largely due to the fact that most Americans are not working. This GDP fallout will be the nearly 2.5 times bigger than the 1958 decline where the US GDP shrunk by 10 percent.
The Deutsche Bank is also predicting that there will be the most severe economic meltdown since World War 2 and they are expecting the US economy to grow by just 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2020 before slipping into an approximately 12.9 percent contraction. This exceeds any previous economic forecasts for many decades. At the same JPMorgan is also expecting a big shrinkage in the US economy at a rate never seen in history. Experts are warning that the European economy will also contract by more than 1.8 percent. It is very clear that the global economy is in the verge of a major collapse if everything is not contained at these early stages.
The whole US economy now is going through a big fallout and the most severe economic meltdown in history has already begun biting. We already have a big liquidity crisis and at the same time we have the biggest debt problem in history. The US has created a debt driven economy and it is very clear that this cannot be sustained for long. Actually the current monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve will not help but instead, the American tax payers will have a bigger debt that will be serviced for decades to come.
The global stock markets have been plummeting in the last two months and experts are predicting that the market will end up tanking by about 40 percent. This is will end up being the biggest market collapse since the great depression. Ahead of us we have a big economic meltdown that will be bigger than what we had back in 2008 and it is clear that our economy is in trouble. This economic crisis is very different from the 2008 global financial crisis. The current economic meltdown is as a result of a health crisis which will take months to get rid of. We will end up having a global economic meltdown that will definitely affect everyone in one way or the other.
This health crisis will shake the US economy in a big way. This comes when most of the American banks and corporations are at a bad financial condition. We have extremely high amounts of corporate debts and many banks are already overleveraged. Many companies in the US are at the verge of collapsing because of this decline in the economy. Overleveraged energy and airline companies will experience a big decline in their valuation. Many companies will go bankrupt and millions of Americas will lose their jobs if this crisis is not solved on time. Economic numbers are catastrophic and it is very clear that we have a big economic contraction in the first quarter of the year and probably this will spill over to the second and the third quarters of this year. 2020 is really the worst economic year in a decade!
Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, we will have a prolonged economic meltdown. Already demand of various products has decreased and the American exports have begun collapsing at a rate never seen before. The credit market is also troubled and we are on the verge of the biggest debt crisis in the American history. On top of this, our markets are experiencing a big liquidity problem despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to inject billions of liquidity into the market. In the last two years debt worth trillions of dollars has been issued and the corporate and credit card debt in the United States has skyrocketed to all time highs.
In the better part of 2019, the stock market rise was largely contributed by shares buy back and this is what created an artificially engineered market. Firms that are making less profit have taken massive amounts of debt and instead of using the cash to expand their operations; these junk companies have been buying their own shares. This is what has contributed to the increase of the value of some companies that are at the verge of going bankrupt. This was very dangerous to the well being of our economy because with the crash of the stock market, these companies are under a big financial stress and some of them are to a point where they will have to go bankrupt.
The global economy has suffered a lot because of the disruption of the supply chains. Just like the United States, other economies are also suffering and the Chinese economy has already shrunk by more than 2 percent in the first quarter of the year. The Euro zone economy has also been shrinking and even without this global disruption, the Euro economy was in the verge of a collapse and still needed a lot of stimulus. The global economy right now is very unstable and it might be just a matter of time before we find ourselves in the middle of a global crisis.
Just like in other countries, many businesses are shutting down all across the United States and this means that many Americans will finally end up losing their jobs. However, the shocking truth is that many workers live paycheck to paycheck and this will be a financial suicide if people will lose their jobs. Approximately 40 percent of Americans have less than $1000 of liquid cash in savings for an emergency. This means that if they are not working, it just a matter of weeks before they find themselves unable to even buy food and other basic products. This is why the government is planning to send $1000 checks to Americans to help them in these difficult economic times; otherwise we will it will be almost impossible for most people to even buy food.
For many decades, we have never seen an economic meltdown of this magnitude. We have a health and an economic crisis that has pushed us to a redefining moment in America. In the middle of an economic slowdown, we have the biggest debt levels in history and the federal government deficit is on the rise. The moment of reality has come where the economic bubble that has been created in the last 10 years is now bursting in our eyes. Respected economists are pointing out that the markets will continue tanking in the near future all the way to about 40 percent. The US politicians in Washington should realize that our economic model is unsustainable and this is the time when Americans want change. Stable jobs have to be created by bringing back manufacturing to the US and by coming up with reasonable economic policies. We are now in the middle of an economic crisis that can easily end up becoming a depression. Trump’s administration has to take aggressive actions in fixing a broken economy because American people need a lasting solution.