Differing from the opinion of other forecasters, best-selling financial author James Rickards defends that the extraordinary amount of printed money launched into the markets and the economy to ease the burden of the crisis won’t immediately lead to inflation. However, that doesn’t mean we will escape from it or that we’ll be seeing brighter days in 2021. Rickards is anticipating tougher times for the U.S. economy. In his view, we’re directed towards a much slower and weaker economy.
He explains that low consumer spending is one of the factors that will slow down inflation at the initial stages of the collapse. Amid record unemployment rates, multiple financial setbacks, and increased amounts of debt, the tendency is that Americans will prefer to hold on to their money, aiming to put their finances in order before they resume engaging in new spending. So all of the “extra money” handed in the form of stimulus checks and unemployment benefits won’t be reinjected into the economy and trigger inflation right away.
But for the United States to be able to cope with the huge national debt, there’s no choice other than launching massive inflation into the system. That’s to say, inflation won’t naturally arise as a result of the trillion-dollar liquidity injections pumped into the system in 2020. Much worse than that, policymakers and the central bank will have to spark it, to produce it by doubling the current inflation target of 2%, and generating a lot more economic deterioration, so that they can wipe away the debt they created.
In other words, as prices skyrocket, Americans will be increasingly less able to afford essential products and services. So, ultimately, we’re the ones who are going to pay the price of this crisis. That’s the scenario of the New Great Depression. Now that Biden has been consolidated in the presidency, Rickards foresees that his policies “will impose major headwinds on an economy that is already struggling”. Biden’s plan for spending and tax raises will likely put the nation exactly on Rickard’s forecasted path.
Goldman and BofA strategists have been warning the same. Goldman projects more fiscal stimulus in the near-term of at least $600 billion, accounting for 2.7% of GDP. A more aggressive take of this scenario comes from the BofA, whose projections signal that an injection of $2 to 4 trillion in deficit spending might occur. That would create higher risks for the markets and compromise the bank’s second-half 2021 outlook on GDP growth and inflation. BofA’s latest forecasts suggest that this year the inflation target will be readjusted to 2.25%.
So as our living standards are set to decline, authorities, politicians, policymakers, and the mainstream media will try to convince us that all of that was necessary to keep the health crisis under control. At this moment, our economy continues to be impaired by business shutdowns that not only prompt mass lay-offs, bankruptcies, and permanent closures as it undermines our prospects of recovery and growth.
The results of the lockdowns have been devastating for millions of lives. Consequently, hatred and civil turbulence have spiraled out of control. Our society has never been more angry or divided since we’ve lost confidence in most of what we used to trust and think was normal. Now, despair is taking over. All the elites want is to make the population desperate and powerless so most Americans can fail to see their real intentions: destabilize our social and economic juncture to make us more tamable and accept whatever they propose to keep unconsciously enabling them to expand their power and wealth at our own expense.
Only when we acknowledge that truth, that we can forge our own path back to a world in which freedom means something again, or we’re going to be stuck in this wormhole of populist anger, petty politics and destruction that is pitting us one against the other. But all is not lost yet. Well, we could stay on the current catastrophic course or we could reverse it. Not Trump. Not Biden. And definitely not the architects and enablers of America’s downfall. “We the people” are the hope for a better year.
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